Although some trends are supply-funded, it is also important to forecast trends in demand, as these trends form the basis for determining the time and money required to make the relevant adjustments. In this overview, we consider trends to be future developments that differ significantly from the past — both quantitatively or qualitatively.
The main objective of this analysis is to support suppliers in their longer-term policy making. The trends mentioned relate to Western society — and to Europe in particular for the next five years. They are based on various quantitative and qualitative trend analyses and assessments made by leading international tourism experts. Finally, analysing trends leads us to the conclusion that every trend creates a counter-trend.
Furthermore, it should be stressed that, in many cases, trends are mixed: Mixed in terms of their phase of development, mixed in results and mixed in the level of importance. Given this fact, it is nearly impossible to isolate tourism development into single trends alone. The number of persons in older age categories will rapidly increase.
Seniors will be healthier and will have higher disposable incomes than in the past. Many of them will enjoy early retirement schemes. In view of this development, the number of more experienced senior travellers will increase faster than the development of tourism demand in general although a gradual downgrading of pension benefits, and a trend to increase the pensionable age may slow down this development in the long run.
The average number of persons per household will decrease still further, which will result in higher disposable incomes and spending power. For tourism, this will influence demand in general, and demand for long-haul travel and short breaks in particular. Though increasing health-consciousness will not influence the volume of demand, it will certainly influence the decision-making with regard to destinations, and behaviour during holidays. In this meaning, tourism has become more individualised while keeping its mass characteristics.
These processes are analysed as results from the need to address the problems created by mass tourism in the past and the accompanying rise of traveller numbers today whereby tourists are becoming increasingly sophisticated Mowforth The Central and Eastern European economies in transition hold out a potential for becoming important new sources of tourists, as well as of destinations Bieber and Potier, These forecasts compared with the processes of deepening integration, as well as with the leading role of Europe as a generator of tremendous tourism travel come to show the trends of the mobility development of the region.
Thus, the mode of transport preferred, chosen, and used by the travellers is not only a key component of the international travel and tourism demand on the European market but also an issue of mobility concepts.
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In this course, there is one major question that inevitably follows: what is the meaning of the increasing travel mobility for Europe? Mobility in the context of the beginning of the third Millennium has become a symbol of the contemporary civilisation. Its speed, reliability and ready availability, undreamed of in the past, give us a mobility and freedom now taken for granted. Mobility nowadays means personal freedom, and social development. It means development. Tourism growth and the increasing mobility resulting from it has not only its positive meaning as it was discussed above, e.
The forecasts for growing travel flows and tourist movements have been revealing the danger for becoming a source of urgent and crucial problems for the economy, the society, and the environment — in other words, for the sustainable development. May The situation is especially urgent in Europe, which is one of the geographically small tourist regions in the world and simultaneously the leading region in terms of tourism travel mobility.
A major concern area that results from this peculiarity is the capacity crisis of the travel and transportation sector that many countries already face Wandel and Ruijgrok, The capacity represents simultaneously a key competitive advantage for the providers of tourism and transportation services, as well as an initial limitation for their competitiveness on the market.
Thus, congestion and environmental pollution are issues that outline the urgency of the problem for the sustainable development. Lewis points out:. Having in view the tourism growth and forecasts discussed in Part 1. Are the new mobility concepts from the academic and the real world able to impact the tourism growth in Europe? Collecting the most interesting recent mobility ideas in Europe. Finding out the similarities and the differences between the mobility perceptions and interpretations in the academic and in the real world; 2.
Identifying the problems arisen, arising, or expected to arise as a consequence of increasing mobility; 3. Analysing the meaning of the mobility in the context of tourism travel; 4. Providing a discussion about the role of the new mobility processes for the future tourism travel growth in Europe. Outlining the key issues of the mobility in the context of tourism travel where a further research is essential.
Because of the nature of the problems that stretch in different academic fields, in different industries, and often in-between them, the next limitations of the scope of the present dissertation have to be done:.
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The focus in this dissertation will be on the modes of transportation that have greatest importance for the travel from the point of view of tourism, i. It will also be oriented to the problems of congestion and environmental pollution in transport sector, which can be referred to as quite strongly resulting from tourism growth. Because of the very restricted use of the water and rail transport for reaching and returning home from the respective tourist destination and the lesser sharpness of the outlined problematic in relation to them, the key attention will be oriented to both most significant and controversial modes of travelling — the air and the car transport.
This dissertation refers to travellers in general because regardless of whether the tourists undertake a journey for leisure, business, or private purposes, they need firstly to travel, i. Although there are different classifications for tourism, as well as for travellers and tourists, these are not of core importance for this dissertation research. However, for avoiding terminological complications and for achieving a higher clarity, two example classifications are presented in Appendix 1.
Their purpose is to serve as orientation and supporting material for the reader rather than to be analysed in detail in the dissertation text. The dissertation will focus only on Europe. The reasons are two: firstly, because of the differences in the geographical size and in the travel patterns between the various tourism regions that makes impossible the generalisations on a global basis. Secondly, because of the fact that Europe is the region exposed to the limitations of two factors opposite in their influence — the small geographic surface resulting in infrastructure and physical capacity constraints from one side, and the leading position in the world in terms of tourism travel mobility from other side.
Thus, the mobility issues are especially urgent in Europe. The dissertation will be concentrated on Europe and mainly on some of the leading tourist-generating countries of the EU that to greatest extent determine the travel in and from this region, and to highest extent face the problems of the increasing mobility. These will be mainly the U.
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In order to meet its objectives, the dissertation will have the chapter structure presented in Table 1. Tourism establishments have predicted that tourism shows a real potential for undertaking its growth trends also in the future. This implies growing travel mobility world-wide, as well as deepening environmental and congestion crisis, which the tourist travel initiates and to which it significantly contributes. In Europe the timely finding of a solution to these problems is especially urgent, also because of the fact that the region has a relatively small geographical size and simultaneously holds the leading position in the world in terms of tourism-related travel.
The creation and implementation of new mobility concepts that have the scope for introducing new and more sustainable travel patterns is of central importance for the future of the European travel and tourism industry. Due to the growth trends described in the previous chapter tourism and travel represents nowadays an area of increasing interest not only for the business but also for the academic circles. There is a tendency when undertaking tourism studies that tourism has been treated merely as a form of or even worse, as an equivalent to leisure Przeclawski Thus, there is an insufficient understanding about the relations between tourism and travel on one hand, and the attitude and interpretation on the space on the other.
Tourism and travel are seldom observed and investigated from the side of the spatial mobility, of which they are an element Przeclawski The fundamental aim for undertaking a research is to discover something unknown and thus, to develop and extend human knowledge Veal A determining decision that should be made prior to conducting the actual research process represents the precise analysis of the horizons offered by various research approaches and the clear selection of those among them that are most appropriate for achieving results that reflect to greatest extent the objectives pursued.
The social sciences research is an analysis of the human world. Thus, the research on the mobility aspects of travel and tourism can be viewed as a specific philosophy Przeclawski This is important in order to go out of traditional perceptions and prejudices about this industry. There are different terminologies and classifications of the approaches applied when conducting a social science research that comprehends in its field also tourism and travel industry.
The most widely accepted research types include several dichotomies: inductive - deductive, descriptive - explanatory, empirical - non-empirical, interpretive - positivist, experimental - non-experimental, primary - secondary, and qualitative - quantitative research Veal Such a survey will confirm that a New Grand Tour is possible in the 21st century, even if it suffers from the failures of Grand Tours past.
T ravelling is by nature ecstatic.
This surrender of the self, requisite for real engagement with a foreign culture, found itself at odds with a stylised English provincialism that was the code of the Grand Tour. In the s, Lassels served as guide to mostly Catholic families of nobility who wished to see the glories of Italy, and proved a generous travel-mentor to various English Catholics in exile throughout the Cromwell interregnum.
After the Restoration, with Charles II wearing a French moustache, and a cultural swing from Puritanism to sybaritism — the return of the theatres, the slackening of sexual inhibitions — Europe was in essence open to English pleasure-seekers, and those who wished for a bit of edification from the Latin aedificatio — an architectural improvement.
Italy via France became the standard route, with Switzerland an option for philosophers, and Greece a further, more exotic destination for a minority of especially adventurous noblemen, most famously including Byron. For centuries, England had been the provinces of European culture the Renaissance made landfall there quite late.
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The Grand Tour was an opportunity to bring the world toto orbe back home, and to seek erudition in its original etymological sense — ex-rudis : being led out of rude ignorance. As the Christians had done with the rituals of their pagan forebears, the English sought to preserve the humanistic principles of liberty, the exalted Ciceronian cadences and the grand architecture, without succumbing to the decadence of Mediterranean morals or the artsy seductions of the Counter-Reformation.
A modern Grand Tour, to be worthy of the name, must be without centre, its itinerary encompassing the southern hemisphere and the Far East in addition to Europe. These lines bring us closer to my own travel experiences. In short, I have been a delinquent traveller though rarely felonious , an idle traveller, an inquisitive traveller, and — if only for my tendency to fall in love at the drop of a half-franc — a sentimental traveller, compelled to record my moments abroad in spite of myself.
A modern Grand Tour, to be worthy of the name, must be without centre, its itinerary encompassing the southern hemisphere and the Far East in addition to Europe, the process a lifelong gyre of alienation and engagement. In US public life, it is a requirement that we genuflect to the abstract virtues of our own country and to deny — at least by implication — that we can learn very much from other cultures. In private, even hardened jingoists know this to be false. In this respect, exchange-based study and summer travel and relief work in Haiti or Uganda is utterly different from the self-regarding jaunts of the 18th-century Grand Tourist, who looked in Michelangelo for a reflection of himself, for whom European travel was a lifestyle accessory, an aesthetic performance, an imitative pilgrimage to the find the source of what one is imitating.
T he 20th-century grand tour, with its trappings of bohemianism and whiff of hemp-smoke, came of age in the s, as Volkswagen T2 vans bounced along switchbacks in say Liguria, bringing seekers to parts east. Go soon. The kids listened. Since that first generation of post-hippie travel-heads, lower airfares have made wandering ever more democratic. The global recession might have slowed travellers, but the rise of ecotourism and volunteer programmes worldwide have helped to keep the wheels greased. To lament a decline of interest in neoclassical art, though, is to miss the point.
Our world, in its humanistic and political ambit, is more massive and complicated than Enlightenment-era Christendom. Cathedrals are not enough. More pedestrian concerns drive current travellers, as well: adventurers of the younger generation can stretch their money further in Asia or South America, and they also have the constitution for such trips.
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It is dangerous to construe these characterisations on too broad a scale. Certainly, I know many young classicists or art preservationists or archaeologists who spend most of their travel in western and central Europe, and to a lesser extent North Africa and the Near East. I never made it to Iceland in the years before its market crashed — years when, if you believed the stories, Reykjavik became a sort of Ibiza of the north where you got cosy with foreigners in hot tubs and kept each other warm against the arctic winds. But any travel experience is necessarily constructed, contingent on whether you know a friendly native or two, and especially contingent on a certain privilege, whether that privilege is money or mere freedom of movement.
Leaving aside sordid phenomena such as narcotourism, there is a fundamental hypocrisy in the heart of the traveller, ie, that he or she is different from the other pilgrims. To see a thing as a tourist is, somehow, to dispense with it.
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